Explainable Feature-based Hierarchical Approach to Predict Remaining Process Time
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    Abstract:

    Remaining process time prediction is important for preventing and intervening in abnormal business operations. For predicting the remaining time, existing approaches have achieved high accuracy through deep learning techniques. However, most of these techniques involve complex model structures, and the prediction results are difficult to be explained, namely, unexplainable issues. In addition, the prediction of the remaining time usually uses the key attribute, namely activity, or selects several other attributes as the input features of the predicted model according to the domain knowledge. However, a general feature selection method is missing, which may affect both prediction accuracy and model explainability. To tackle these two challenges, this study introduces a remaining process time prediction framework based on an explainable feature-based hierarchical (EFH) model. Specifically, a feature self-selection strategy is first proposed, and the attributes that have a positive impact on the prediction task are obtained as the input features of the model through the backward feature deletion based on priority and the forward feature selection based on feature importance. Then an EFH model is proposed. The prediction results of each layer are obtained by adding different features layer by layer, so as to explain the relationship between input features and prediction results. The study also uses the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms to implement the proposed approach, and the framework is general and not limited to the algorithms selected in this study. Finally, the proposed approach is compared with other methods on eight real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the proposed approach can select effective features and improve prediction accuracy. In addition, the prediction results are explained.

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郭娜,刘聪,李彩虹,陆婷,闻立杰,曾庆田.一种预测流程剩余时间的可解释特征分层方法.软件学报,2024,35(3):1341-1356

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History
  • Received:July 18,2022
  • Revised:September 12,2022
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 10,2023
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