大语言模型能力上界、应用边界和可信模型系统
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TP18

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国家自然科学基金(L2524018); 中国科学院学部学科战略类项目(4-XKC2025019)


Capability Upper Bounds, Application Boundaries, and Trustworthy Model Systems of Large Language Models
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    摘要:

    生成式大语言模型(以下简称大模型)通过建模海量语料中的统计规律, 在语言理解、内容生成和交互式问题求解中展现出突出能力, 但其能力形成机制也限定了适用范围和可靠性条件. 大模型能力受到3类机制性条件约束: 训练数据决定知识覆盖和时效范围、有限条件下Transformer架构的结构性表达边界以及概率生成目标导致的原生性幻觉. 这些能力上界的约束会进一步在应用中显现为任务范畴、风险后果和数据形态的边界: 生成式模型与判别式任务的错位、安全攸关场景对黑箱幻觉的低容忍以及序列化表征与结构化数据的不适配. 面对单体模型在知识、计算、验证和责任方面的局限, 关键突破路径在于向模型系统演进. 智能体式工作流是模型系统的重要形态, 通过引入外部记忆、检索与工具调用等构件突破单体模型的能力限制. 同时, 该系统需依托生成与符号验证闭环确立信任锚点, 落实“生成归模型, 验证归系统”; 并嵌入人在回路机制确保最终决策的责任归属. 大模型的发展需要从参数规模扩张走向系统可信建设, 转向构建可解释、可验证、可追责的模型系统, 使其真正成为辅助人类解决问题的可靠工具.

    Abstract:

    Generative large language models (hereinafter referred to as LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding capabilities in language understanding, content generation, and interactive problem-solving by modeling statistical regularities in massive corpora. However, the mechanisms underlying these capabilities also constrain their applicability and reliability. Specifically, LLMs’ capabilities are constrained by three types of mechanistic conditions: training data that determines knowledge coverage and temporal scope; the structural expressive boundaries of the Transformer architecture under finite conditions; and inherent hallucinations stemming from probabilistic generation objectives. These upper-bound constraints on model capability further manifest in practical applications as boundaries across task categories, the severity of potential consequences, and data forms: the misalignment between generative models and discriminative tasks; the low tolerance of safety-critical scenarios for black-box hallucinations; and the incompatibility between serialized representations and structured data. To address the limitations of monolithic models regarding knowledge, computation, verification, and accountability, the critical evolutionary path lies in transitioning toward model systems. Agentic workflows constitute an important form of model systems, overcoming the capability limits of monolithic models by integrating components such as external memory, retrieval, and tool calling. At the same time, these systems must establish anchors of trust through a closed loop of generation and symbolic verification, following the principle that “generation is handled by the model while verification is handled by the system.” Furthermore, a human-in-the-loop mechanism must be embedded to ensure the accountability of final decisions. The development of LLMs needs to shift from scaling up model parameters to constructing trustworthy systems, moving toward building explainable, verifiable, and accountable model systems, so that they truly become reliable tools that assist humans in solving problems.

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何玥,初旭,汪云海,魏哲巍,杜小勇,梅宏.大语言模型能力上界、应用边界和可信模型系统.软件学报,2026,37(8):3223-3228

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-23
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-06
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-06
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